This week we welcome political scientist Prof. Dr. Heinz Gärtner, who will explore with us possible ways out of the war in Ukraine – unfortunately he cannot spread much optimism.
Putin’s war, which is increasingly being waged against civilians, could only be ended with a comprehensive ceasefire. Both sides’ proposals for serious peace talks are on the table – and both sides will have to make some concessions in the process Prof. Gärtner explains. If no peace deal can be agreed upon, the outcome will be disastrous for both sides: Russia would probably win militarily, but in the long run it cannot hold Ukraine, nor can the Russian economy survive a total blockade by the West. Ukraine on the other hand has already suffered dramatically in so many ways and could permanently be conquered at least partly by Russia and lose it´s souvereignity.
Prof. Gärtner believes Putin’s main reason for invadiding Ukraine is a possible NATO membership of Ukraine in a couple of years.
Even if Ukraine´s NATO membership is more than unlikely in the coming years, it would be an important signal to Putin if Ukraine officially declares it´s neutrality. Regarding Donbass and Crimea, negotiations would in any case be more difficult, Prof. Gärtner predicts.
No one knows how far Putin wants to go militarily: whether he will risk a new Afghanistan or if he will seek a division of Ukraine along the lines of the Dnieper river mirrroring the Korean example.
Why Putin launched this war just now, why zones of interest will have to be kept in mind and whether the open world of globalization has come to an end are further topics of this important interview with Prof. Gärtner.
Univ.-Prof. Dr. Heinz Gärtner: professor emeritus for political science at the University of Vienna, expert on international and European security and armament control
Alexander Stipsits: international journalist, author and filmmaker, Ceske Budejovice (Czech Republic).
Mag. Christian Janisch, MBA: works as an international journalist.
|War in Ukraine – Little hope for peace-YOUTUBE||Wolfgang Müller||CC BY SA 4.0|